It is being reported today that the GDP expanded 3.5% in the third quarter. That seems to be a good sign, but don’t start singing “Happy Days Are Here Again!”! I question how much of this expansion is due to the government getting out the taxpayer’s credit card and artificially and temporarily expanding the economy. By one estimate that I heard recently as much as 10% of our economy is derived from an ever expanding national debt.
Last quarter was boosted by the $24,000 that was spent per car on the cash for clunkers program, the $8.000 being given to fist time homeowners (artificially inflating home values), and thousands of other programs financed by the $1.8 TRILLION ($1,800,000,000,000) that Washington added to the national debt this year. The White House has admitted that the stimulus’s greatest impact has already been achieved and the stimulus will have little impact next year. (click here)
Unemployment figures are now becoming worthless because the rates do not reflect people that have slipped out of the government’s unemployment lifeline or have been transferred to extended unemployment benefits. They are predicting that unemployment will remain at 9.6% through next year.
Holiday sales will illuminate the true state of the economy.
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October 29th, 2009 at 11:43 am
I hope that people have learned an important lesson in the past year and are not driven to make a bunch of senseless purchases in the name of holiday shopping. Our country’s absurd consumerism, especially by those who finance their habits on credit, is the root reason for the mess we are in. I hope the holiday sales are WAY down and that this proves that we as a people have started to learn a lesson that should have been taught through common sense. Do I think most have learned to not be overconsupmtive pigs? Unfortunately no I don’t!
October 29th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Eric, there are quite a few things we DO agree on. Your take on our consumerism is correct. We are a nation that consumes, we don’t MAKE, at least not at the level we need to - and that is catching up…
I take these Gov figures with a huge boulder of sodium. Most of the “profits” were salary savings (job losses), reduced compensation for management, restructured work-days (for what industry we still have) and companies going back to their hedghog concepts.
I think Roubini is probably right - we are in for a DD recession.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/index.php
http://www.rgemonitor.com/index.php
October 29th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
You are right about the need to actually make stuff. Our economy leaks like a sieve. A dollar of stimulus money ends up outside the U.S. in no time flat. I was reading a report on an Irish financial website. The stimulus is is showing up on the bottom line of CRH (an Irish company). CRH is the largest paving material producer in the U.S. and third largest producer of aggregates.
We need to get back to manufacturing or we will be handing the keys over to China.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Eric… you said:”I hope that people have learned an important lesson in the past year and are not driven to make a bunch of senseless purchases in the name of holiday shopping. Our country’s absurd consumerism, especially by those who finance their habits on credit, is the root reason for the mess we are in.”
I really hope you tell that to the Democrat Controlled govt…. as they are spending way too much on credit and sooner or later those chinese notes will be due.
October 30th, 2009 at 8:43 am
Crabby you make a great point about manufacturing, we need it bad. I’ve been a machinist going on 13 yrs. now. All the junk from china is killing my trade and slowly working its way up to everyones. Manufacturing is the first hit by bad times and last to see the good times. One of the best things I hear time to time is when we take back a job ( parts ) from china, becouse they can’t make it RIGHT the first time. Alot of manufacturing is coming back becouse they can’t give the quality we AMERICAN workers can give. The bad thing is china knows about this, and has realy stepped there quality to keep the work.
I think we already handed the keys over.
Think about it, there driving SUV’s now and we have to ride mopeds becouse gas is $5,000.00 gallon. They have jobs, we don’t.
October 31st, 2009 at 3:29 am
Eric has hit on one of the biggest paradoxes in economics and no economic system has ever found a satisfactory compromise for the seemly contradictory truths, the fact that people must spend for an economy to prosper (capitalist or not), yet it’s really in people’s best interests to be conservative with their financial resources. Neither Adam Smith nor Karl Marx had a satisfactory solution for that.
October 31st, 2009 at 8:51 pm
halloween sales were slow
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:17 am
as the credit card debt increases we will see a down turn in the market again. We are set for another low cycle in the market… so if you missed out on this cycle to buy stock you will have another chance
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:01 am
I saw today in the Dispatch where Equipment sales were up 1.1%. This lumps in not just machinery, but also office equipment like computers. This isn’t a “boom”, this is just replacing what can’t be fixed. In the past year, I’ve opted to have repaired 3 plamsa cutters and 3 welders, instead of just replacing them. I suspect that most businesses are only buying when they can’t get an item repaired.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:35 am
Chris just remember the Chinese will not be calling in those debts because they need us buying their cheap crap as much as it appears our people want to own the crap! Calling in that bet would plunge them into a worse economy than we have. It is a mutually assured destruction relationship with China economically that we have set up. Don’t hold your breath on that “call-in”. Again if people would buy quality over quantity and only what they could actually afford we would not be in this trouble. Of course our economic system is not set up for this to happen. I do remember a certain president saying the cure to our national ills after 9/11 was to SHOP!!!!!
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Hey Eric…. stop calling out Bush…hes gone (thank god) we are talking about the CURRENT admin and their wanton desire to borrow borrow borrow and spend spend spend (they are beginning to sound like republicans)
and you said: “it is a mutually assured destruction relationship”
wow a democrat finally admitting that..im impressed… true words were never more spoken.
Im tired of paying taxes for a govt who love to spend money or pork projects but let the Avg american suffer.. the democrats promised “CHANGE”
they only “change” i see is the name of the party…the politics seem no different.
November 4th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Chris,
Was I asleep or did the last regime try to get health care and climate change legislation passed? Seems that there is a lot of hatred for the “new” policies of this administration. Or are they the same as the last? It can’t be both, either this is a radical new shift in policy that the tea baggers are pissed about or it is the same old, same old which the tea baggers never cared about last time. Can someone clear up which it is for me?
November 4th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Look Eric,
I hated bush as much as the dems did.. i feel he wasted money and politics in a war we cannot and arent winning.
But what has Obama actually accomplished that he promised us in his speeches? Obama the candidate promised change..promised to reach acroos the ailse and work together with congress… told us that he could make things better…
No offense, but after a year of “we are better than Bush” i no longer have the same faith in the Obama plan for America. He has a democrat controoled congress but STILL nothing gets done…
sorry but that to me is no different than the last “regime” as you called it.
Same as bush “all talk no substance” but by god we all had a chance to buy a new car…
November 4th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
So what do you want? If he says ’screw the R’s’ and pushes his entire agenda as far as he can without their support you trash him for not being bipartisan. If he even tries to get ONE republican vote it bogs the process down so that nothing gets done. What do you want him to do? There appears to be no middle ground. He is attempting a health care bill, climate change, and really not much else until those two either die or pass. What else do you want him to do? Everything he talked about at once? Yea I can only imagine he would get roasted for doing too much then, so what is it then? He cannot rule by fiat, congress must act as well, he certainly is attempting to do some major things he campaigned on are you denying that? It appears he can’t win no matter what with some folks, he is either doing nothing or trying to do too much. What fun that must be.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Eric,
all i can say to you at this point is:
“nice stereotypical Democrat answer”
November 5th, 2009 at 10:33 am
When a liberal can’t discuss with actual facts, they resort to name calling. Racist, Tea Baggers, Evil Capitalist, Hat Mongers, etc.
I am one of those people that marched in Washington on 9/12 and dang proud to do it. If you would like to refer to me a any of those statements, shave at it, because I really do not care. It makes no difference to me. Keep one thing in mind when you refer to someone as a Tea Bagger. They are fighting not only for their Constitutional Rights, but your Constitutional Rights as well. You may want to re-read the First Amendment, if you haven’t done so.
Here’s a very simple question that you should ask yourself when it comes to what the Government wants to control or enforce with a Bill.
Does it affect:
My Life
My Liberty (Freedom)
My Right to own Property (Anything that I own)
The last regime wasn’t that much different than the new one, except:
The Presidential Advisers (Czars) didn’t love:
Mao, Chavez, Marxists, Communists, Tyrant & Dictators. If you don’t believe these facts, feel free do a search. You may want to look under Anita Dunn, Van Jones and ACORN associations.
Old Regime Appointees didn’t seem to have “Tax Issues”. The New regime has (or tried to have):
Tim Geithner
Kathleen Sebelius
Tom Daschle
Nancy Killefer
And I know there have been more that I’ve forgotten.
Under the Old regime, I was not labeled as a domestic terror threat to MY OWN COUNTRY. Because I believe in a Higher Power, own a gun, and an a “white” male that believes in the Constitution, I fit their profile.
The new regime promised transparency. Everything would be on the internet for all of us 72 hours before it was to be voted on. It was going to be on C-SPAN. Very little of that has happened.
The Old regime at least spoke to the Commanders of our Troops more than they spoke to David Letterman.
The old regime took vacations and didn’t apologizes for being Americans. The new regime does fundraisers and apologizes to the rest of the world for being Americans.
The old regime came up with the Patriot Act, which I oppose. The Liberals opposed it. Now, the new regime hasn’t thrown it out, but instead, has given it an extention.
The old regime had to deal with Cindy Sheehan. The new one does to, but the media doesn’t cover it. Huh, wonder why? I may not agree with Cindy, but I respect her because she has held true to her convictions.
I’m looking forward to your reply , with solid actual facts.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Bluejackets67:
well thought out and well said.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Bluejackets67… wonderful and entertaining reply. But sorry… when you just throw everyone that is a “liberal” under the bus in the first line or two… it pretty much discredits much of what you said. At 29, if there is anything I have learned, the bickering, name calling, and nonsense occurs on both sides. That comment tells me you got your goggles on and are not seeing clearly. It just does not give much credence to your arguments… or thoughts.
And again many of your “facts” are differences of opinions, perceptions and philosophies, so really we would all be wasting our time. I don’t think any “liberal” can be completely satisfied with Obama (including me)… and I certainly know the same can be said with “conservatives” and Bush and the like.
November 6th, 2009 at 10:13 am
OHIO BOBCAT:
Where are the “facts” about transparency wrong? Obama Has been secretive about alot of “non security” issues that he PROMISED would be “transparent”
Fact: Obama has spoken to David Letterman more than any other candidate and now was the first sitting president to do so.
Fact: Obama has apologized several times “for America” to many leaders and now even to Native Americans…
Fact: Since Obama has been in office the perception is given that “off color” jokes about the President are Criminal, Not liking Obama People are called racist, and being a White man seems to be as derrogatory as being a black one in the 60s.
Fact: CANDIDATE Obama said he repeal the patriot act. PRESIDENT Obama Extended it.
I see Facts in what BJ67 said…didnt you??
November 6th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Bobcat,
I see a difference in the terms that I use than probably what you’ve been taught to associated them with. A Liberal isn’t a Democrat. A Conservative isn’t a Republican
A Liberal is someone that when a fact against their belief is pointed out, they can’t logically combat it with intelligent arguments. Name calling and slanderous statement are used. Many Liberals are now a majority of all elected officials that ran under the Democratic party ticket.
A Republican is someone that really believes that they need to keep the rich “rich” to stay in power. T.A.R.P. and Bailouts are a fine example. You’ve heard of Darwin’s Theory that one the strongest survive. A business is no different. If the public wants your product, then they will buy it. If not, you either evolve and produce something they want, or go extinct. Republicans supported T.A.R.P. I say, let G.M. and Chrysler go under. Instead OUR tax dollars were wasted on companies that no one wants their products. Look at Kaiser. No one bailed them out, they just went out of business.
True Conservatives and true Democrats are typically what your neighbors are. If you are, by my definitions, a Democrat and took the time to talk to your Conservative neighbor, you’d find out that most things you would agree upon. There are only a few items that you wouldn’t, but possibly find an somewhat agreeable compromise.
I believe that I’m responsible for my families welfare, no matter what it takes.
I believe in not spending more than I can afford.
I believe in having a work ethic. There is no job below me, if it means my families survival.
I believe that if my neighbor is having a problem, help them out until they get back on their feet. I don’t believe that I should have to support them for the rest of their life, I have my own family to support.
In another 14 years of life experience, your view may also change. And if you have kids, they really change dramatically.
For me at 29:
You’re either a Republican or a Democrat.
9/11 hadn’t happened.
There wasn’t a Housing or Banking Crisis.
And you know what else? I didn’t even own a gun.
Take a look at the late 60’s Hippies. They turned into the 80’s Yuppies. The complete opposite of how they started. People change as they get older and so do their views.
The Democratic Party of today is not the Democratic Party of Truman’s day.
The Republican Party of today is not the Republican Party of Reagan’s day.
If you don’t like my thoughts, that’s okay. Vote for who you trust, not for a party. Everyone should think for themselves. And yes, if you look back, the Republicans also called names like a spoiled child. If someone called me a Liberal or Republican, I would be offended. A Conservative or a Democrat, not at all.
November 7th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Alrighty Chris K… I will start with you…
Fact: “Obama has spoken to David Letterman more than any other candidate and now was the first sitting president to do so.”
–I really am indifferent to this. It may be a fact but I give a big “So what?” This is completely irrelevant. Yeah, Obama has a different personality than George Bush. If we did not have 8 years of complete ineptitude and a leader that could not speak to us in complete sentences, then what did you expect? I knew if the Dems could get someone that could speak eloquently and bring some personality to the elections, that they would be in good shape. Obama has the ability… you can not only “drink a beer” with him… you can also see that he has some knowledge of pop culture.
Fact: “Obama has apologized several times “for America” to many leaders and now even to Native Americans…”
Now wait a minute… again a fact (to an extent) but this is a difference in perception. I do not recall Obama’s exact words but I never took it as a direct “I am sorry”. Sure you can correct me if I am wrong but it does not matter anyways. And even so, again it is in response to the complete and utter nonsense that the Bush White House displayed. Being around DC has given me the opportunity to meet a lot of neat people from around the world. And overwhelmingly people like Obama because of his humility. And he is not the first president to do these things… just the first in a while. We are in a global economy and a world that has to rely on each other to survive… I personally find Obama’s stances refreshing and as I said, so apparently does much of the world.
Fact: “Since Obama has been in office the perception is given that “off color” jokes about the President are Criminal, Not liking Obama People are called racist, and being a White man seems to be as derrogatory as being a black one in the 60s.”
–Yeah and like I told you guys, most self proclaimed “libs” and Dems as myself have not heard this directly and it is probably what many Republicans think of the religious right… they are idiots that think that… or simply to make a simple comparison as that is ludicrous. I do agree though with Jimmy Carter that obviously given the not so distant U.S. history with segregation and the like that clearly there is some underlying racism out there. I am not saying a majority… far from it. Of course, that got a certain guy named Crabby in a tizzy. I am not afraid to admit that I do not agree with Obama on everything… and if there are idiots out there that want to call me a racist, so be it.
…And I roll my eyes to these statements. When I was saying that going to war with Iraq in 2003 was a farce, I was threatened and called “unpatriotic” so it goes both ways.
Fact: “CANDIDATE Obama said he repeal the patriot act. PRESIDENT Obama Extended it.”
-Based upon the admitted small amount of info I have on this, I disagree with this as well.
November 9th, 2009 at 9:56 am
OhioBobcat
So by old regime and new regime, your looking at it as Bush Executive Administration and Obama Executive Administration.
My take on old Regime was Executive and Legislative Branches During Bush Presidency. New regime as Executive and Legislative Branches During Obama Presidency.
Now that we have clear understanding of your definitions:
Obama needs to make a decision. You either listen to the Military Commanders and send more troops to Afghanistan or you pull them all out. I don’t want to hear anymore about “how he inherited this mess from the previous administration”. Quit passing the blame. He’s in charge now and needs to take responsibility. If he didn’t want to be responsibly, he shouldn’t have run for office. How long are our troops, that have had multiple tours going to have to wait?
You are correct that Obama isn’t the first president to give apologies about America. Carter, G.W. and Clinton did as well. As far as Obama and humility in the same sentence? I can honestly say that this is a matter of personal opinion. The first remarks out of his mouth when Prof. Gates was arrested was “Stupidity”. Not “I don’t know all of the facts about this yet”. That would have been the smart thing to do. I don’t see the humility at all, in any of his actions.
And yes. You are correct, there are racists out there. White racists, Black racists, Red racists, and Yellow racists. So far it appears that if you happen to be white and don’t like Obama’s direction for this country, you’re a card carrying KKK member.
War in Iraq. I believe that the bad info from Russia, and Britain didn’t help. Saddam didn’t help himself either. Was it the right thing to do, at the time it appeared so. Now, I’m not sure. We freed a country from a evil Dictator. With the mass killings by him of his own people, not much different than Darfur. But I think that Iraq will go right back to a dictatorship. I do think it’s a joke when I hear that we did it for the oil. Yeah, that’s help the Americans out so much….
And, on the Patriot Act, Obama alone doesn’t have the power to make this promise. There are three branches of the government, if you don’t include the media. He has power over only 1. If he worked with the Legislative branch, which his party controls, this could have been eliminated. Let’s be honest here, The Republicans don’t have the numbers to stop or create anything right now.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Bluejackets67… I am not ignoring your posts. You obviously have many opinions on these issues and certainly I can respect that. There are some things I would agree with and some that I would not… I just don’t know what I can really add here. I may have to re-read your posts a couple of times and find some things to argue about for fun… because certainly you are more than capable… again it goes back to differences in viewpoints and maybe fundamentals. I just don’t know if we would get very far with that.
November 11th, 2009 at 9:41 am
I don’t take this as arguing. This is just a discussion with different views and some facts thrown in. If there weren’t facts, then it would be arguing. You can’t dispute facts.
Winston Churchill has a quote that fits very well here. “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.” Nobody is looking back to avoid mistakes that have already been made. History does repeat itself, over and over again. Most Governments only last about 200 years before there’s an uprising.
Socialism doesn’t work without giving up some of your freedoms. I think that we’ve been pushed hard down this path since the Carter Administration, with the exception of Reagan.
Communism only works when you give up all of your freedom.
I don’t have a lot, but I don’t want something given to me. Especially when my kids will have to pay back my share. I just want the freedom to be able to provide for myself, as I see fit and can afford.